With the New Hampshire primary just a day away, it looks like both the Republican and Democratic races could be headed for a photo finish.
About a year ago, University of New Hampshire political experts Andy Smith and Dante Scala sat down with a reporter from The Eagle-Tribune to handicap the 2008 presidential race, looking at the front-runners, the also-rans and even a few dark horses.
Last week, we met with the two pundits at a popular campaign stop — the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester — to talk about what has changed over the past year, and which candidates have emerged or faded. They took a look at the race from the starting gate in January 2007 to the home stretch tomorrow.
The stakes couldn’t be higher — a leg up in the run for the ultimate winner’s circle, the Oval Office.
The Republicans
And they’re off.
At this time a year ago, Mitt Romney was behind both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. But he quickly made up ground. By late spring and early summer, he had overtaken the two odds-on favorites.
Romney did it by working hard in the state, building an organization and spending a lot of money.
“His (campaign) centerpiece is to win New Hampshire,” Smith said.
McCain, who won this race in 2000, faltered after a strong start. His unpopular stances on the war in Iraq and immigration had him almost out of the running by the fall. His campaign nearly went bankrupt, and several key advisers resigned. In one memorable moment, the Arizona senator was forced to fly coach class to a campaign appearance in the Granite State.
Giuliani, though buoyed by McCain’s apparent collapse, fell off the pace a bit, which allowed Romney to put some distance between himself and the rest of the field.
Way back with the other long-shot candidates was former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Given little chance a year ago, he began to close the gap after a strong showing at the June debate.
But even as his poll numbers rose in Iowa, New Hampshire voters remained wary.
To them, he looks like “Algebra from The Little Rascals,” said Smith, referring to the pet mule on the popular Depression-era movie short.
By the fall, several candidates had pulled out of the race, including former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, former New York Gov. George Pataki and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel.
The war was less of an issue with the success of Gen. David Petraeus’ surge tactic. Immigration was still a factor.
Romney held tightly to the lead, with McCain moving up bit by bit as the race progressed in the fall.
Giuliani, though leading in the national polls, continued to poll poorly in New Hampshire. Instead of spending time here, he focused on attacking Hillary Clinton.
“He is believing his own hype,” Smith said.
The former New York City mayor stayed away from the Granite State early, then later spent more time and money here, to no avail, Scala said.
Giuliani looked like an indecisive jockey, first pulling on the reins and then applying the whip, and moderate Republicans began to move away from him and toward McCain.
As the candidates rounded the final turn, the defining issue became who was more presidential.
McCain, on the outside, started to close on Romney, who hugged the rail. And the ex-Massachusetts governor’s loss to Huckabee in the Iowa caucuses further slowed him.
With his win in the Hawkeye State, Huckabee has picked up ground on the leaders here, and now looks poised for a third-place finish.
It appears Romney has done everything right in this race, but he just hasn’t been able to shake McCain.
The question, Scala said, is whether Romney has a kick in store, a final burst of speed.
Newspapers throughout the state have lined up behind McCain, who spent most of the past week in New Hampshire. And the media likes a good come-from-behind story, Scala said.
“Everyone is yelling, and everyone is yelling for McCain, he said.
The Democrats
The defining issue out of the gate was the war in Iraq. The front-runners distinguished themselves only to the extent to which they opposed the conflict.
Right to the front with a comfortable lead went Clinton, the prohibitive favorite. She knows the Granite State oval well, had.a strong organization in place, and plenty of name recognition.
Settling into second was Barack Obama..A relative unknown with a limited track record, he made quite a splash back in December 2006 as touts in the media and elsewhere remarked upon his confident bearing and gait.
A distant third was John Edwards, the vice presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket in 2004.
At the back with the pack was New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. Later, his experience and humor would draw attention, putting him in fourth place in late spring and early summer.
On foreign policy, some differences between Clinton and Obama came to light as the summer progressed. Obama said he would speak directly to U.S. adversaries. Clinton said that was a bad idea, and a mark of naivete. She would be more hawkish with countries such as Iran.
“Clinton was going to be more like Bush,” Scala said.
As summer drifted to fall and the race reached the halfway point, the war in Iraq was reported less.on the front pages of newspapers as the surge tactic gained traction.
Health-care reform became more of an issue among Democrats, but voters were hard pressed to explain major differences between the front-runners’ plans.
In fact, the leading Democrats revealed few differences.
Which candidate was more presidential emerged as major factor, as well as who was the candidate of change and who was the candidate of experience.
Clinton has run a smooth race, Scala said. She appeared presidential and refused to take the support of New Hampshire voters for granted.
Obama, however, showed some late speed and closed the gap between he and Clinton with an impressive showing at the debate in Philadelphia.
He continued to build on his momentum with his victory last week at the Iowa caucuses, and is now running neck and neck with Clinton.
Looking to the finish line, Scala and Smith said it will depend on what New Hampshire voters want most in their next president.
“Clinton wins on experience,” Smith said. “Obama wins on change and everything else.”
Dante Scala, left, and Andy Smith talk about the presidential primary and things leading up to it Wednesday afternoon at the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester.Jarrod Thompson/Staff Photo(Click for larger image)
