Local News
July 25, 2007
It is the most southerly of the banks of the North Atlantic and until the 1990s provided a vast supply of cod, haddock, flounder and other species, when science and reduced catches showed the effect of overfishing the bank.
Now, commercial landings are highly limited by regulation, but the report notes that Massachusetts lands far more cod - 10.5 million pounds with dockside value of nearly $16 million in 2005 - than the rest of the region, Maine through New Jersey, combined.
How effectively emissions are controlled will largely determine how high the sea bottom temperature at Georges Bank will climb in the second half of the 21st century, the report asserted.
Current conditions on Georges Bank are already at 47 degrees, which is considered the threshold for "recruitment," that is the ability of cod to reproduce and grow to maturity, "indicating that a decline in production and yield can be expected as temperatures increase."
In the higher emissions scenario, bottom temperatures are projected to rise six degrees while lower emissions are thought capable of keeping the rise to two degrees.
A seven-degree increase would bring the bottom temperatures on Georges Bank to 54 degrees, the maximum for adult cod, the report said.
"This would render these storied fishing grounds ... vulnerable to substantial loss of suitable cod habitat," the scientists wrote. "Under the lower-emissions scenario, this threshold.is not expected to be exceeded this century."
They went on to report that "temperatures are likely to exceed the threshold for growth and survival of young cod under either emissions scenario during this century. This would lead to declining productivity across a substantial part of the Northeast's continental shelf.
The report on the future of lobsters in the region is similar but less dire.
As waters warm, south of Cape Cod is expected to lose its coastal lobster fisheries by mid-century, but "Maine may see its lobster habitat expand," the report said.
On Georges Bank, "lobsters in these waters are found in the highest densities in submarine canyons where they are unlikely to be exposed to stressful warm water temperatures," while in the Gulf of Maine, "warming in these colder northern waters may actually boost lobster populations by spurring a longer growing season, more rapid growth, an earlier hatching season, more nursery grounds suitable for larval settlement and faster planktonic development."
The chapter on marine impacts in the Northeast region from global warming was written by Michael Fogarty, James Manning and David Mountain of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at Woods Hole, Lewis Incze of the University of Southern Maine in Portland, Richard Wahle from the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Maine, and Andrew Pershing, of the University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute in Portland.
Report: Warming waters may force cod northward
If the pace of global warming is not slowed by reducing fossil fuel emissions, by mid-century increasing water temperatures could drive cod from Georges Bank, according to a new report on climate change.
But even if emissions are reduced, the report of the Union of Concerned Scientists found that with more slowly rising water temperatures, while "Georges Bank would remain suitable for adult cod ... yield and productivity may decline as these waters become less hospitable for the spawning and survival of young cod."
But lobsters on Georges Bank will fare much better, the report found.
The report offered little long-term hope for cod fishing south of Georges Bank, where only a small fraction of cod are caught - less than 1 percent of the regional total. The report predicted that cod would move north to find optimal temperatures and provide improved fishing in the Gulf of Maine.
Released last week, the report considered possible impacts of global warming on the entire northeastern region. It devotes an entire chapter in the 146-page study to marine impacts, specifically on cod and lobster.
The Northeast Climate Impact Assessment, a political and scientific treatise, contrasted likely conditions affecting cod and lobster if global warming remains uncontrolled to the projected lesser impacts with a regional and worldwide effort to reduce fossil emissions.
The report defined its "higher emission" scenario as "unrestrained fossil fuel use" and its "lower emissions" scenario as involving "rapid, concerted efforts to adopt clean, efficient technologies."
Even with extreme measures to control emissions, the study found that historic and present emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels will raise the average regional winter temperatures 2.5 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit and summer temperatures 1.5 to 3.5 degrees by 2050.
What is at stake, the writers argued, was the future of the region's climate and oceans past mid-century.
What the region and world decides about controlling emissions will have a dramatic impact 40 years from now on the nature of the Atlantic Ocean and the civilization to its west.
In its consideration of cod, primary attention was given to likely water temperatures and conditions on Georges Bank, an oval underwater plateau about 70 miles offshore situated between Cape Cod and Cape Sable Island, Nova Scotia, which separates the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic.
But even if emissions are reduced, the report of the Union of Concerned Scientists found that with more slowly rising water temperatures, while "Georges Bank would remain suitable for adult cod ... yield and productivity may decline as these waters become less hospitable for the spawning and survival of young cod."
But lobsters on Georges Bank will fare much better, the report found.
The report offered little long-term hope for cod fishing south of Georges Bank, where only a small fraction of cod are caught - less than 1 percent of the regional total. The report predicted that cod would move north to find optimal temperatures and provide improved fishing in the Gulf of Maine.
Released last week, the report considered possible impacts of global warming on the entire northeastern region. It devotes an entire chapter in the 146-page study to marine impacts, specifically on cod and lobster.
The Northeast Climate Impact Assessment, a political and scientific treatise, contrasted likely conditions affecting cod and lobster if global warming remains uncontrolled to the projected lesser impacts with a regional and worldwide effort to reduce fossil emissions.
The report defined its "higher emission" scenario as "unrestrained fossil fuel use" and its "lower emissions" scenario as involving "rapid, concerted efforts to adopt clean, efficient technologies."
Even with extreme measures to control emissions, the study found that historic and present emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels will raise the average regional winter temperatures 2.5 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit and summer temperatures 1.5 to 3.5 degrees by 2050.
What is at stake, the writers argued, was the future of the region's climate and oceans past mid-century.
What the region and world decides about controlling emissions will have a dramatic impact 40 years from now on the nature of the Atlantic Ocean and the civilization to its west.
In its consideration of cod, primary attention was given to likely water temperatures and conditions on Georges Bank, an oval underwater plateau about 70 miles offshore situated between Cape Cod and Cape Sable Island, Nova Scotia, which separates the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic.
It is the most southerly of the banks of the North Atlantic and until the 1990s provided a vast supply of cod, haddock, flounder and other species, when science and reduced catches showed the effect of overfishing the bank.
Now, commercial landings are highly limited by regulation, but the report notes that Massachusetts lands far more cod - 10.5 million pounds with dockside value of nearly $16 million in 2005 - than the rest of the region, Maine through New Jersey, combined.
How effectively emissions are controlled will largely determine how high the sea bottom temperature at Georges Bank will climb in the second half of the 21st century, the report asserted.
Current conditions on Georges Bank are already at 47 degrees, which is considered the threshold for "recruitment," that is the ability of cod to reproduce and grow to maturity, "indicating that a decline in production and yield can be expected as temperatures increase."
In the higher emissions scenario, bottom temperatures are projected to rise six degrees while lower emissions are thought capable of keeping the rise to two degrees.
A seven-degree increase would bring the bottom temperatures on Georges Bank to 54 degrees, the maximum for adult cod, the report said.
"This would render these storied fishing grounds ... vulnerable to substantial loss of suitable cod habitat," the scientists wrote. "Under the lower-emissions scenario, this threshold.is not expected to be exceeded this century."
They went on to report that "temperatures are likely to exceed the threshold for growth and survival of young cod under either emissions scenario during this century. This would lead to declining productivity across a substantial part of the Northeast's continental shelf.
The report on the future of lobsters in the region is similar but less dire.
As waters warm, south of Cape Cod is expected to lose its coastal lobster fisheries by mid-century, but "Maine may see its lobster habitat expand," the report said.
On Georges Bank, "lobsters in these waters are found in the highest densities in submarine canyons where they are unlikely to be exposed to stressful warm water temperatures," while in the Gulf of Maine, "warming in these colder northern waters may actually boost lobster populations by spurring a longer growing season, more rapid growth, an earlier hatching season, more nursery grounds suitable for larval settlement and faster planktonic development."
The chapter on marine impacts in the Northeast region from global warming was written by Michael Fogarty, James Manning and David Mountain of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at Woods Hole, Lewis Incze of the University of Southern Maine in Portland, Richard Wahle from the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Maine, and Andrew Pershing, of the University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute in Portland.
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Aquarium for city's I-4, C-2 property?
Evangeline King dances with her son, Athan, 20 months, as they listen to Inge Berge perform during Celebrate Gloucester yesterday. Several hundred people attended the concert, which featured several performers with Cape Ann ties, at I-4, C-2 on Gloucester’s waterfront. The vacant lot is being eyed for an aquiarium by at least on city councilor. Kate Glass/Gloucester Daily Times
Ward 1 City Councilor Paul McGeary sees the property as home to a prestigious waterfront marine aquarium and research center creating jobs, tourist dollars and vitality on Gloucester's downtown working waterfront.
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