Poll shows Kerry vulnerable, but is that good news for O'Reilly?

By Edward Mason
Staff writer

June 19, 2008 12:02 am

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BOSTON — A recent Suffolk University poll that indicates a thin majority of voters are dissatisfied with U.S. Sen. John Kerry, would seemingly be good news for Gloucester attorney Edward O'Reilly, Kerry's Democratic primary challenger.

But Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, who conducted the poll, said private surveys he's conducted for other clients, and which weren't released, show O'Reilly substantially behind the junior senator, no closer than 20 points anywhere in the state. In one typical district, O'Reilly is down 57 percent to 26 percent.

"I haven't seen a scenario where the (polling) numbers are close," Paleologos said.

Yet O'Reilly said he's upbeat. O'Reilly said he expected the results to be even worse, given that he was virtually unknown before the June 7 Democratic Party convention.

"I thought I'd come out in the teens," O'Reilly said.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll of 500 Massachusetts general election voters was conducted by Paleologos between Sunday, June 8, through Tuesday, June 10.

It indicated that 51 percent of respondents said it was time to give someone else a chance, while 38 percent said Kerry should be re-elected. Nine percent were undecided.

A Suffolk University poll in April 2007 also found support for the junior senator soft.

O'Reilly, a former Gloucester city councilor running his first statewide race, said the poll gives him hope.

"People down a lot more than me have come back to win," O'Reilly said.

Suffolk found that a credible candidate could knock off Kerry, who was elected to the Senate in 1984. Respondents were not asked if they preferred O'Reilly or the Republican candidate, Jeff Beatty of Harwich. Paleologos said O'Reilly doesn't appear to be that candidate.

"He (O'Reilly) could be credible on the issues," Paleologos said. "But looking at the cold, hard numbers, I haven't seen a district where O'Reilly was close."

Besides being less well known, O'Reilly is significantly outgunned by Kerry, who has more than $9 million in the bank compared with O'Reilly's nearly $300,000.

O'Reilly said he's counting on improved name and issues recognition through free media. He's appeared on radio and television in recent days, and his strong performance at the convention earned him statewide media coverage.

He also hopes a series of debates and town meeting-style forums he's proposed, but which Kerry has not committed to, will help him gain ground.

O'Reilly also expects that voters unenrolled with a particular party, a majority in Massachusetts, will propel him to a win.

"Unenrolled voters are a group I haven't tapped into yet," O'Reilly said.

Fifty-six percent of unenrollled voters want Kerry replaced, compared with 34 percent who want him re-elected, according to the poll.

That may not help O'Reilly, though. Unenrolled voters tend to stay home for the party primaries, Paleologos said, and come out in big numbers for the general election. Since O'Reilly is challenging Kerry in the primary, that does not bode well, Paleologos said.

But that could help Beatty, the Republican, in November.

"A big influx of independents, who knows what happens here," Paleologos said.

The margin of error for the June 8 to 10 poll is plus or minus 4.40 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence..Marginals and 130 pages of cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site http://www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html.

Edward Mason may be contacted at emason@gloucestertimes.com.

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